THE ROLE OF MONEY & THE INTERNET IN SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT

by

Robert Macfarlane, Garry Jacobs and N. Asokan

presented to Pacific Rim Economic Conference, Bangkok, Jan 13-18, 1998

Mother's Service Society - Pondicherry, India

...

Organizations of the Mental Stage

Knowledge is the central characteristic of the mental attribute of human consciousness which has assumed an increasingly dominant role during the last few hundreds years. Although we speak of the mental phase as being of very recent origin, it is evident that the mental component has been an active contributor to development since primitive societies developed agriculture and invented the wheel. What has changed very markedly is the relative contribution of this mental attribute, which is made visibly evident by the increasing speed of development in modern times. The knowledge that the mental component acquires and applies to further human progress has had a profound effect on all aspects of social life ranging from pure mental concepts to practical physical applications. The action of mind in four specific fields has had an especially powerful influence on the course of global development — political thought, social organization, education, science and technology.

The development of philosophical thought and values expresses in social life as changing concepts about the purpose of life, the role and nature of human beings, and the relationship between the individual and the collective. This abstract and exalted field of mental speculation appears far removed from practical considerations. Yet it has been the source of the revolutionary thoughts and values that have radically transformed the political and social structure of civilization over the past five centuries, leading to the establishment of democratic principles and forms of governance as a global standard, if not quite yet a global practice. This movement can be traced back to the revival of humanistic thought, spread of education and secular values that arose during the Renaissance. It gained momentum with the spiritual empowerment of the individual by the Reformation, the birth of modern science, the affirmation of rationalistic ideals during the Enlightenment, and the declaration of human values by the American and French Revolutions. These movements have culminated during this century in the collapse of colonial empires following World War II and the rapid spread of democratic forms of government in Latin America, Eastern Europe and Africa over the past two decades. The tremendous release of individual energy and collective dynamism that accompanied the practical acceptance of these ideals has provided the impetus for momentous social accomplishments that until recently seemed inconceivable.

Education

This transformation of the political organization of societies which has extended basic human rights at first to the middle class and eventually to the common man was mirrored by a parallel development of the social organization for education that was equally far reaching and powerful in its impact. Education is the systematic organization of the cumulative knowledge and experience of humanity and the transmission of that knowledge to the next generation in a concentrated and abridged form. It is the central instrument for making the past discoveries and experience of humanity more and more conscious and accessible for application by society to meet the opportunities and challenges of the future. If the distribution of political power to the entire population was inconceivable to the pre-revolutionary aristocracy and common people of Europe, then the concept and practice of universal education prevalent today would have been absolutely unthinkable. The Renaissance and Reformation led to a revival of interest in education that, like science and philosophy, had been eclipsed in Europe during the Middle Ages. Prior to 1600, education was confined to a small population consisting mostly of Christian scholars and the nobility. Both Luther and Calvin believed that every individual should read the Bible and urged establishment of state educational systems. In the 17th Century education spread gradually but maintained a strong religious orientation. Leading thinkers of the Enlightenment stressed the importance of intellectual knowledge to the practical advancement of society and the importance of secular education. During the next century secularism and social progress began to prevail and for the first time advanced scientific and mathematical knowledge became a part of the school and university curriculum in Europe and North America. The growing recognition of the importance of education for social progress led to the extension of elementary education to the middle classes and prompted more states to assume responsibility for establishing and maintaining national school systems.

Over the last two hundred years, education has become one of the principle organizations in modern society. Since the end of World War II, it has come to be universally recognized as a principle instrument for national development, leading to a worldwide expansion of primary and secondary education along with a multiplication of colleges, universities and professional schools. At the same time, the breadth of the educational curriculum has been expanded and significantly reoriented to cover a great many areas of applied knowledge such as specialized fields in engineering, physical and biological sciences, business management, economics and most recently computer sciences. Education has awakened the mind of humanity to its innate potentials and to the enormous untapped opportunities in its external environment. This growing awareness has released infinite energy for mental creativity, social innovation and practical invention. It has raised the aspirations and expectations of people everywhere for the fruits of progress. It has equipped individuals with the mental knowledge and skills to fashion and manage more and more powerful and complex forms of social systems, and to design, manufacture and operate more and more powerful and complex forms of technology. It has created an unprecedented openness and tolerance, which are an essential basis for global development in the coming years.

Technology

Mind applying itself to the field of thought creates new concepts and more powerful ideals. Applying itself to the field of society, it creates new and improved social organizations. Applying itself to the field of matter, it discovers the physical laws of nature and creates new technologies and inventions. The application of mind's creative powers to the field of science, technology and practical invention has had an enormous impact on social progress during the last two centuries. History reveals a slow and uneven advance in applied scientific knowledge and technology. There have been periods of great inventiveness and great discoveries in the distant past, followed by periods of stagnation. But nothing can equal in sheer numbers and significance the explosion of human invention that has occurred since the onset of the Industrial Revolution. A classic study by Lilly found that the relative rate of inventiveness rose seven-fold between 1700 and 1900 to reach a level at least ten times higher than had been achieved during earlier millennia.

A number of specific factors have contributed to this accelerating rate of inventiveness, but the essential cause has been the emergence of the mental principle as the spearhead of social development. Its energies released by politically awakening and social freedoms, its thought liberated from blind submission to tradition and refined by education, the power of mind has applied itself to transform the social and material life of humanity. Superstitious beliefs and religious dogma characteristic of the physical stage have been powerful deterrents to fresh thinking and innovation during much of human history. In the Middle Ages in Europe, inventions that seemed a little too clever or unusual were frequently condemned as satanic and their inventors persecuted. Thus, Copernicus' heliocentric theory was rejected as inconsistent with the scriptures and remained unpublished during his lifetime. Churchmen condemned Galileo's refracting telescope as an instrument of the devil. After he openly endorsed Copernicanism, he was sentenced to life imprisonment for 'vehement suspicion of heresy'. The movement of rationalist thought ushered in by the Enlightenment reduced the inhibiting influence of superstition and religious dogma and cleared the way for the emergence of the experimental sciences.

There is a common tendency to view technology as a thing apart and to explain the developmental achievements of the last 200 years exclusively or primarily in technological terms. This view is inadequate because it attempts to isolate advances in technology from the general advance of knowledge and social organization characteristic of the mental stage of development. In earlier periods, scientific investigation and technological innovation were carried out as isolated activities without the support of the social organization. Prior to the 15th Century, there were no reliable mechanisms for the recording, preservation and dissemination of inventions, so most discoveries were applied only locally and a great many were lost altogether. Individual inventors adapted and improved mechanisms for specific applications, but in most cases their innovations were never transmitted to others or standardized for widespread use. The technological developments of the Industrial Revolution would not have been possible without the organization of scientific knowledge and the establishment of scientific associations throughout Europe in the 16th and 17th Century. The publication of scientific journals aided the conservation and organization of society's technical knowledge. Until legal protection for patents was introduced at the end of the 18th Century, inventors had no way of knowing about similar inventions and no way to stake an economic right to their discoveries, except by keeping them secret. In France exclusive rights to an invention were protected by letters of patent granted only by royal authority and records were kept in a single central location inaccessible to all but a few.

Technology is knowledge of matter organized and applied through a practical organization. The widespread application of technology during and after the Industrial Revolution depended on the development of several other types of social organization. The organization of agriculture by enclosure of common lands in England generated surplus farm incomes, freed people to migrate to the towns, and fueled rapid population growth, which resulted in an increased market for manufactured goods and made mechanization feasible. The organization of urban commercial centers, transport and foreign trade created demand for larger volumes of production than could be readily produced by human labor. Poor roads in 17th Century Europe retarded industrial invention. There was little incentive to increase production so long as expansion of the market was severely hindered by poor transportation. The development of sea trade routes during the 18th Century opened a much wider market for manufactured products, stimulating a new outburst of invention. The organization of mass production according to the principles of division and specialization of labor made the adaptation of mechanized technology practical. The organization of education equipped the society with the skills necessary to design, manufacture and utilize an endless stream of more complex and sophisticated inventions. Technology developed as an integrated part of the evolving fabric of the social organization.

Internet

We witness today the confluence of factors that characterize the mental stage  unprecedented political freedom, a global affirmation of the individual and the rights of the common man, abundant and overflowing social energy, an irrepressible drive of mental inquisitiveness, the accumulation and codification of knowledge in all fields, the universal aspiration for and spread of education, a worldwide revolution of rising expectations, a veritable explosion of technological inventiveness, and the accelerating pace of organizational creativity and innovation, which is the technology of social development. These factors coming together in the mental stage have given birth to a new form of organization whose creativity and potential contribution to social advancement rival in importance the role played by money over the past millenium. The emergence of the Internet as a worldwide system of communication, information exchange, education and commerce is opening up vast opportunities for more rapid development. It is eliminating barriers to communication imposed by space and time, leveling the playing field between rich and poor, and making possible universal access to information and services at very low cost.

We have been tracing the evolution of social institutions that developed by a long, slow unconscious process over centuries or millennia. Now we are confronting a phenomenon that is expanding before our very eyes, proliferating globally with a speed that defies even our most sophisticated capabilities for tracking and measurement. For the first time we have the opportunity to observe the process close up at an accelerated rate that enables us to perceive those conditions that make it possible and to experience first hand as participants the social will that propels this development.

Internet was born and grew up in the USA, a social environment in which political freedom, social self-expression and individual empowerment have been elevated almost to cult status; in which widespread prosperity has distributed material comforts to the majority of people; in which higher education has been extended to more people than anywhere else in the world; in which the discoveries of science generate keen anticipation and excitement; in which the quest for information has become an insatiable thirst; in which the productive value of information has become a self-evident fact of life; and in which new technologies are accepted, assimilated and mastered with greater eagerness and facility than at any other time or place in history. Viewed in this context it is evident that the development of Internet is neither a fortuitous discovery nor an inevitable evolution of technological trends. It is a natural expression and embodiment of the aspiration of modern society for unlimited and immediate access to information and unlimited means for individual creativity and self-expression. This aspiration has released a colossal energy in society that is by no means restricted to any single country or form of expression, but rather flows and overflows through every conceivable channel that will lend itself as an outlet.

Internet's Four-fold Infrastructure

Like every major social organization that has come before it, the emergence of the Internet has taken place on the foundations of a four-fold organizational infrastructure. At the physical level, Internet is the product of the creative convergence of two very powerful technology-based systems — computer networks and telecommunications. The coordination of two or more systems or fields of activity unleashes a tremendous productive power. The linking together of mail order and retailing propelled the growth of Sears to become the largest retailer in the world within quarter of a century. The linking of air transport with a unique system for auctioning flowers has enabled tiny Netherlands to capture 68 percent of world trade in cut flowers.

The initial infrastructure for Internet was established in 1969 to provide a secure and survivable communications network for organizations engaged in defense-related research. Over the following two decades, it evolved into a fast, convenient, low cost means for universities and research institutions to electronically exchange information and messages. The spread of personal computers in businesses, government, schools and homes coupled with the growth of local area networks during the 1980s and early 1990s provided a means for million of individual users to link into the system. These developments propelled the growth of the Internet from a thousand or so networks in the mid-1980s to about 60,000 connected networks in mid-1995. By the middle of 1997, the Internet was available to an estimated 100 million register users worldwide.

A huge number of incremental technological advances in computer hardware and software, data transmission and satellite communications contributed to the development of the Internet. Among these, the development of a standardized graphic interface language compatible with a wide range of computing systems formed one of the final links that transformed a text oriented information system into a multimedia system for publishing, broadcasting and transactions — the World Wide Web.

It would be a gross oversimplification and misconception to view the Internet primarily as a technological advancement. All these technologies taken together do not inevitably add up to the Internet. It is possible, perhaps even likely, that had the same technologies been available in an earlier time and under different circumstances, they would not have given rise to a system with the same characteristics. What is new and unique about the Internet, thoroughly in character with the temper of our times, and the source of its unprecedented productive capacities is its organization. Internet is primarily and preeminently a new model and form of social organization with untold power to transform the way society functions.

Even before Internet emerged as a worldwide phenomenon, the shift in computing from a specialized activity carried out in central data processing departments to an activity performed by millions of individual workers at their own workplaces and the linking of these separate computers into vast networks for exchanging information over long distances changed the way in which work was being carried out in businesses, universities and government. Even more significant was the organizational model selected by the U.S. Department of Defense. Rather than a hub of computers under centralized control, the system was designed so that every computer on the network could communicate, as a peer, with every other computer on the network. Thus, if part of the network were destroyed, the surviving parts would automatically reroute communications through different pathways. The result was the creation of a vast organization without central authority or hierarchy.

Internet is the money of this century. Internet is to us what money was to the 18th century. Internet is the MONEY for information. What money was to commodities Internet is to information.]

It is difficult to separate out the mental infrastructure that supported these physical and social components, because it is so closely intertwined with the other elements. Development of scientific and technological capacities and knowledge were obviously central. In addition, the spread of general education, computer literacy and skills have given rise to a society with the mental energy and capacity to readily accept and rapidly adopt this new medium to an infinite variety of uses. A psychological foundation was also essential. Surely a society that feared technology or a workforce that feared being replaced by computers would not have responded enthusiastically to the creation of an ubiquitous system that lends itself to so many possible applications. In actuality, although the system was developed by government and large organizations, its entry into the mainstream of the national life was almost entirely the result of the public's ready and enthusiastic response and wholesale adoption of the new organization.

The very rapid development of the Internet in the West has only been possible because these four foundations have been built up and strengthened during the past few decades. The development of these infrastructures required the prior accumulation of huge surpluses of capital, mental energy and leisure time that could be made available by the society and channeled into the new activity. These surpluses are a product of the maturation of the vital stage of development, which generated the enormous growth of economic activity, productivity, capital accumulation, education and leisure in Western society.

Organizational Power of the Internet

From this perspective, the material circumstances and technological developments that made the emergence of this new organization possible appear less significant than the force that has guided their expression and the organizational structure that makes the Internet unique. It is impossible to predict the magnitude of the impact and all the ramifications of this new system on social development in the coming decades. But even after discounting the hyperbole generated by marketing firms and media coverage, it is clear that the Internet will and is already exercising a very profound influence on the development of the human community.

1. It provides instantaneous access 24 hours a day from anywhere in the world to a growing wealth of information and knowledge that could soon rival that of all but the most sophisticated libraries and may eventually replace the library as a social institution. Immediate access to information will accelerate decision-making and action across a broad spectrum of activities. 2. It provides a new medium for commercial transactions that in the USA alone could soon exceed in volume the $50 billion mail order industry. One result will be the weakening of national commercial boundaries and growth of world trade as companies gain easier access to overseas markets. Another will be a reduction in transaction costs by the elimination of some types of intermediate commercial agencies that have been necessary in the past to connect producers from ultimate consumers.
3. The very low entry cost for setting up and advertising business activities on the Web helps to level the playing field between large and small firms and opens up a new frontier for entrepreneurship.
4. It provides a medium for financial transactions that could radically transform the way securities are marketed.
5. It provides a new medium for distance education that will transform the way educational institutions delivery knowledge and instruction, freeing education from the school the way money freed wealth from the land.
6. It provides a very rapid, low cost means of personal communication between individuals located anywhere in the world, abridging the psychological distance and perceptual differences between societies.
7. It provides a means for special interest groups to form instantaneously around any subject of common interest and act in unison over vast distances. One recent instance is the linking together of hundreds of small, independent specialty retailers and manufacturers in the USA to achieve economies of scale heretofore available only to mega-corporations.
8. It offers a low-cost means for any person or group to publish and broadcast views to the world community, providing a practical mechanism for individuals to fully exercise their democratic right of free speech. Internet shifts power to the people.
9. It provides a medium to offer the best available knowledge and expertise to everyone. Expert medical information on health problems and remedies can be delivered to millions of people on demand.
10. It opens up the prospect that all citizens may soon be able to participate directly in a democratic system that is no longer determined more by the interests of politicians than by the views of the electorate.

Access to and use of the Internet is heavily concentrated in advanced industrial countries and urban centers today. It is primarily geared to provide the types of information and services sought after by the more educated and the wealthy. However, the Internet has the potential to powerfully influence the pace and direction of progress in less developing countries and regions as well.

1. It already provides companies in developing countries with immediate access to a wide range of commercial and technical information that is otherwise slow, costly and difficult to obtain. 2. These companies also acquire a low cost means to reach potential customers anywhere in the world.
3. New industrial products and processes can now be monitored and examined electronically as soon as they are available.
4. Reliable information and expert advice can be accessed from outlying areas. Access to the latest scientific information need no longer be restricted by budgetary constraints.
5. Scientific knowledge and educational programs available on the Internet are equally accessible to people all over the globe. The development of the next generation of translation software will reduce language barriers as well.
6. The establishment of low orbit satellite links will make it possible for low income countries to establish an alternative delivery system for information, broadcasting, telephone and fax services to vast rural populations.
7. As the institution of money promoted the development of urban communities, the institution of Internet empowers people everywhere with equal access to information and services and provides a mechanism for maturation of global citizenship and a truly global community.

These are only a few of the most obvious areas in which the Internet will or is already transforming society. But the most profound impact is likely to be in intangible areas that are very difficult to quantify and measure. They can only be vaguely indicated by analogy with the impact of other institutions that have transformed social life, such as language and money. Language is an organized system of sounds and symbols that enables rapid and accurate communication of thoughts and sensations between people. Before language, the ability of two individuals to communicate was extremely cumbersome and limited. Social life was very primitive. Experience could not be shared with others, recorded or passed on to youth. Organized group activities were severely restricted by the inability to arrive at a common set of objectives, plan of action, division of labor, timeframe and agreed basis for sharing the results. The introduction of language made organized activities possible and with it the birth of developing societies and mature civilizations.

Money has played a similar role as the basis language for commerce. Before money, the ability of two individuals to interact economically was extremely cumbersome and limited. Money provides a common language in which economic goods and services, property and privileges can be expressed, valued and exchanged. The introduction of money has made possible the exponential growth of production, trade and consumption. Now Internet is establishing a common language and a readily accessible mechanism for the rapid exchange of information and ideas between virtually everyone who has access to the system. Intellectually, this will exponentially increase the opportunities for exchange and dissemination of ideas and information for business, education, governance and research. The increased velocity and better quality of information, better because more current, will dramatically increase the speed and quality of decision-making. Practically, it will dramatically increase global access to goods and services.

In addition to speed and access, Internet also provides a mechanism for infinitely expanding the interactions between users and for customizing services to meet individual needs. Before Internet, the primary delivery systems for information have been one-to-one such as the telephone, fax and post, which like barter are limited by the need for a double coincidence, or one-to-many mass broadcasting systems such as newspapers, radio and television, which cannot discriminate between users or provide customized services. Internet makes many-to-many relationships a reality. By so doing it increases the potential number of interactions and transactions infinitely. It also enables either the source or recipient of information to control content and customize it to meet specific individual needs. As mass production has made more sophisticated products available to more people at lower cost, Internet will make customized and personalized services affordable and accessible.

Money increases energy in society and enables that energy to be utilized more efficiently. Before money, people had little incentive to produce more than they could consume. Money provides a means for individuals to save the fruits of their labor, store them indefinitely, transmute them into any form, transfer them to others or exchange them for any other social commodity. In so doing, money releases people's energy and encourages them to work harder. Similarly, Internet allows the intellectual work of any individual to reach a far wider audience than is otherwise possible and to be more fully utilized by society. It releases mental energy, encourages mental creativity, and makes the results of creativity more widely available.

This new social system derives its unprecedented productive power from the same attributes that have made organizations effective since the dawn of society, but the similarity may not be immediately obvious. Organizations acquire power from their capacity to exercise authority and direct the energies of people. Internet is an organization without any discernable center of power or ability to direct anyone or anything. It is the first organization that anyone can access, but no one can own or control. Authority exists on the Internet, but it has been impersonalized and internalized. It is impersonalized in the form of strict technical standards, communication rules and language conventions to which all users must conform in order to participate in the organization. It has been internalized in the sense that usage of the system is strictly voluntary. The force that drives the growth of the system is the self-directed motivation of individuals and organizations to use it in the absence of any external compulsion. The enthusiastic interest that the Internet has evoked around the world is a measure of the determination of society to fully explore and exploit the potentials of this organization.

Organizations also derive power from systems, which we term the skills of society. The Internet is a very complex organization of systems for the generation, transmission, distribution, reception, and cataloging of information. As the Internet becomes a more common and accepted means of carrying out activities, it will equip society with an entirely new order of skills to raise productivity, increase convenience, improve quality and accelerate actions.

The power of an organization increases with its complexity, with its ability to coordinate and integrate a wider range of activities. Cities became centers of intense energy and high productivity by maximizing physical coordination between different activities concentrated in one location. Money derives much of its power from its ability to relate to every type of social activity, convert one into the other, and coordinate each with all the others. Internet has a parallel capability to cross-reference any subject and create meaningful linkages between previously unrelated topics. Every new social organization spreads gradually until it enters into relationship and integrates with every other social organization. The development of car travel has supported the growth of fast food, hotels, transport, commerce, industry, education, suburban communities, tourism and recreation. The development of television combines and integrates entertainment, educational programming, news, advertising, direct marketing, politics, sports and public service. Internet combines and integrates the functions of mail, telephone, fax, motion pictures, television, radio, newspapers, libraries, schools, conferences and discussion groups. It makes it possible to interrelate political, commercial, financial, educational, recreational, scientific, medical, religious, cultural and personal activities, stimulating the growth and increasing the productivity of them all. It creates the maximum number of potential synaptic connections between different subjects and activities.

Ultimately organizations derive their power from the values they embody and express. Although some people decry the absence of values on the Internet, by which they mean the lack of control over the suitability of content, the Internet actually embodies high and strong values from which it derives an almost irresistible strength. These include physical values such as speed, timeliness, efficiency and productivity; organizational values such as standardization, systemization, coordination, integration and communication; and psychological values such as equality of access, public service and empowerment of the individual.

As money empowers the individual with unlimited access to economic goods, Internet empowers the individual with unlimited access to knowledge. It enables a person to do what previously only an organization could accomplish. It makes people more competent and less dependent. It increases freedom of choice. It may soon bring a time when no book need ever go out of print and every student can choose his own teacher. Internet reduces the limitations imposed on humanity by space and time. It helps elevate people from the physical to the mental stage. As money has become a symbol of private property, individual acquisition and self-affirmation, the Internet is a symbol of our collective accomplishments, shared inheritance and human unity.

Applications

Some may argue that a theory which is so comprehensive and all-embracing may, by explaining the significance of everything, sacrifice the focus and precision needed to be practically useful. We disagree. On the contrary, we believe that the theory will help focus attention on precisely the right points for the analysis of policy options, because it calls first of all for determining the present status and preparedness of the society, the current direction given to its energies and aspiration, and the level of social organization and infrastructure presently available to support further development initiatives.

The theory is not a substitute or alternative to current economic theories of development. Rather than contradicting or diminishing the significance or utility of current theories, it can help place them in proper perspective and by so doing makes more precise the conditions under which their projections will be accurate and their prescriptions will be effective. In addition, the theory also provides fertile ground for the development of new specialized theories that reveal specific phenomenon in a wider social context. This may in some cases lead to conclusions at variance with the views resulting from a fragmentary analysis in a specific local context. For example, the significance of inflation in the context of social evolution is very different than the view that arises from explaining its immediate short-term causes and effects in the context of changes in monetary policy in an industrially advanced economy.

What are the Limits?

Regardless of the terms we use to measure it, the developmental achievements of the world over the past few millennia have been so enormous as to qualify for the epithet 'infinite'. Global population, the crudest of measures, has multiplied 60,000 times since early man first took to cultivation. If we had adequate measures to reflect qualitative and well as quantitative improvements, we would find that the same order of magnitude is applicable to developments in the fields of agriculture, governance, commerce, production, technology, information, education and science. Coupled with the fact that the rate of global development has been and is still accelerating, does this permit us to conclude that the potential progress of humanity is without limits?

Faced with this prospect, even the most optimistic minds feel uncomfortable, for mind delights in the contemplation of finite possibilities and feels at sea in a field without boundaries. In defense, it calls forth age-old mental habits of skepticism and pessimism and quickly garners evidence and arguments to support a contrary conclusion. The most obvious is the fact that the highest level of accomplishments are presently enjoyed by only a small portion of the human race, leaving the vast majority of people at levels far below even the average level of human achievements  some even little better off than their primitive ancestors. The second is the common-sense argument that any attempt to extend today's peak level of accomplishments to the rest of humanity would inflict an intolerable burden on the limited resources of the planet and the carrying capacity of the environment. A third is that in cataloging the achievements of modern society we cannot afford to overlook the serious problems that mitigate if not negate the benefits of development and that with further aggravation could prove overwhelming.

There is truth and merit in all these points, provided they are viewed in proper perspective. Early hunting tribes would have been fully justified in concluding that growth of world population beyond 10 million people would tax global game and fish reserves to the point of exhaustion and therefore was both undesirable and impractical, because they did not anticipate the development of cultivation and animal husbandry. Early agricultural communities would have been fully justified in concluding that the limited productivity of their cultivation methods and the limited amount of land placed severe restrictions on the growth of population beyond 300 million. They could not foresee the discovery of systematic crop rotation and sparsely populated, new continents of fertile soil capable of feeding a population ten times this number and, according to one estimate, as much as eight times the world's current population. Residents of early cities with population densities exceeding by 50% the most densely populated urban areas in the modern world would have been justified in concluding that the squalor, limited water supplies, accumulation of pestilent sewage, and rampant spread of disease limited cities to a maximum of 100,000 residents. They could not envision the development of the sophisticated urban organization and infrastructure that now enable populations of more than 1000 times this size to enjoy modern amenities, good health and long life in large metropolitan areas of the most advanced industrial countries.

Every major social advancement seems to generate new problems equal or greater in magnitude than those that it overcomes. The agricultural technologies utilized to increase food production have given rise to depletion and contamination of soil and water resources. The medical technologies employed to reduce infant mortality and prolong life expectancy have given rise to the population explosion. The manufacturing technologies employed to meet the rising material expectations and demands of nearly six billion people have polluted the land, sky, rivers and oceans. Surely it is correct to assume that consumption of natural resources on the scale and with the intensity practiced by industrialized nations over the past five decades is unsustainable. New and improved methods must be found; new styles of life must be introduced. The physical pressure of a degraded environment and the economic pressure of rising fuel and material costs, as well as the political and social pressure generated by emerging populations will compel it. But these are precisely the types of pressures that humanity has faced in every earlier period of its development. They have spawned the intellectual, organizational and technological innovations that have brought the world to its current peak levels of achievement. The drastic reduction in pollution achieved by some industrial nations in response to insistent pressure from environmental groups over the past two decades illustrates this capacity. Dutch scientists have already proven that the amount of water required to produce one kilogram of vegetables is only 1.4 liters compared to actual current water consumption levels by the world's farmers of 100 to 1000 times this amount. Israeli farmers routinely demonstrate vegetable yields 30 times higher per acre than the average achieved in many developing countries. Automobile manufacturers are already capable of producing commercial vehicles that generate almost zero air pollution. The visible pressure of overcrowded and polluted cities has given rise to greater awareness and growing concern, the mechanism which the collective will of society utilizes to compel alterations and improvements in human behavior.

But even if all the problems that threaten populations today or limit their further progress were removed, the human mind would still be left with a gnawing sense of dissatisfaction. This arises because the course of human development pursued up until now seems so fraught with waste, error, exaggeration, injustice and imperfection. No matter how resourcefully we have tackled the problems of the past, surely the blind stumbling method of social progress is doomed to reach or exceed tolerable limits sooner or later.

This argument would be quite compelling if humanity were forced to continue to rely on the methods that it has employed up to this time. Humankind has evolved over millennium by a long slow process of unconscious development. One of the central characteristics of this unconscious process is one-sidedness and imbalances. This arises out of the tendency of mind to divide and dissect every phenomenon into smaller and smaller parts and to formulate ways to deal with each of these parts separately with little or no comprehension of what ramifications these isolated actions will have on the health, stability and integrity of the whole. The initiation of unidimensional strategies arising from this tendency is the essential source of the problems that plague modern society — population, pollution, poverty, crime and social isolation.

It would be naive to assume that solutions to all present and future problems will be found in technology, unless we extend the meaning of the word beyond current usage to include the entire domain of know how which humanity applies to carry out the activities of its social existence. For we have been at pains to show that even in the past, the attribution of human progress primarily to advances in physical technologies is a facile assumption and inadequate explanation. Development is the process of organizational development, of which the development and application of mechanical technologies forms a significant expression. But the essential factor in that process is not technology, it is human beings. The progressive growth of human awareness and understanding, of the capacity for conception and organization, of the ability for skilled and coordinated execution, of the enjoyment of self-discovery of human potentials and self-expression of human resourcefulness in and through the collective social life are the essence of development.

The theory contends that humanity is entering a new stage of development in which the mental consciousness plays a far more powerful and determinative role. This has created the possibility and the opportunity for humanity to replace the slow and stumbling process of unconscious social development with a more conscious, rapid and integrated method that is free from the excesses, insufficiencies, frequent setbacks and dead ends that have characterized human progress until now. The essential prerequisites for this significant change include a thorough re-examination of humanity's past experience and present activities from the perspective of a comprehensive theory of the development process. Once this is done, we could proceed with greater preparedness and confidence to ask 'What are the limits?'

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